Yesterday’s Review
1.5pts e/way Headmaster (105) – The selection put in another solid performance but had to give best to the winner who has shown plenty of ability in the past but had lacked consistency. Dylan Brown McMonagle’s mount was denied a clear run over two furlong out but it made little difference to the result as he was a clear second best beaten 1.75 lengths. Result 2nd 5/1 adv..5/1 SP.
0.5pt e/way City House (103) – A decent effort from this five-year-old who managed to hit the frame having travelled in touch of the leaders. He kept on to snatch fourth place beaten 3.75 lengths and should be more competitive in Class 3 contests. Result 4th 14/1 adv…18/1 SP.
1pt e/way Rousham (91) – An error on my part to study this contest as I was under the impression it was a Class 5 race as I went from horse to horse. The selection was denied a clear run on the wrong part of the track and proceeded to hang to the right away from where the action was taking place. A reminder of the pitfalls of studying low-grade contests.
1pt e/way Commander Of Life (99) – The selection reared as the stalls were opening and did very well to hit the frame as the front-runners dominated the contest from start to finish. He made good headway over a furlong from home and kept on all the way to the line finishing in fourth place beaten 3.25 lengths. Result 9/2, 4/1 adv…7/2 SP.
Today’s Advice
No investments
Plenty of low-grade racing today which didn’t have anything that took my fancy. I do have two selections for Royal Ascot tomorrow.
CUT A DASH (6f Gp1 Coventry Stakes) – Usually at first glance in some races a timefigure recorded by a contestant will stand out from the opposition and make things easier from a selection point of view. But in a lot of cases, and moreso nowadays than previously, in order to find a truer reflection of a horse’s ability one will have to use sectional timing due to the increase in the amount of slowly run races. Studying two-year-old races can be one of the more difficult aspects of the sport as there can be less information on hand to predict the contestant’s ability. However, the more challenging the puzzle the more rewarding the victory. When it comes to two-year-old races at Ascot Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien has been a difficult man to overcome. At last year’s meeting he took 3 of the 4 Group race contests for two-year-olds with Gstaad, True Love and Charles Darwin. There can be no doubt he is already the greatest trainer of all-time and every season that passes he just improves.
In the case of plenty of the Ballydoyle two-year-old winners the improvements they make from race to race can be like comparing night and day. A victory in a trial for one contestant may appear ordinary when the numbers are crunched and they leave that form miles behind next time out. In this year’s Coventry Stakes (3.05) Royal Ascot the two Aidan O’Brien trained contestants certainly fit that mold on the sectional timing data available. Short priced favourite Confucius does hold the top timefigure of the field with a (107) on debut when still green and looking mightily unlucky when not getting a clear run beaten a nose by Lars Soldier on heavy ground. He did win very easily next time out over 6f at Naas but I found the sectional timing data less impressive than I was hoping for. Nevertheless, it was a step forward from debut and another step forward for this race should not be ruled out. However, at the prices on offer I would have to let him win at his current odds. A similar case could be made for the second favourite Great Barrier Reef who looked in trouble two furlongs out last time out over 6f in the Group 3 Marble Hill Stakes when stablemate Carry The Flag was turning up the heat from the front, but he gradually wore that rival down inside the final furlong. Once again the sectional timing was less than sensational but we cannot rule out another leap forward from this improving two-year-old.
The selection came to my attention when taking his novice contest on debut at York over 5f and while the (102) timefigure doesn’t leap off the page the adjusted sectional timing certainly did. The winning times on the straight course were slow on the day with rain about and a bit of a headwind against the runners. I calculated the going allowance on the straight course on the day to be slow by 0.34 seconds per furlong leaving me with a sectional timing performance from the winner of (35.46secs) to the 3 pole and (23.31secs) for the final two furlongs. The performance compared very well with the Kevin Ryan trained Listed winner Dickensian who won the Listed Westlow Stakes the following day over the same course and distance rated 100 by the handicapper. I calculated the going allowance on the straight course for this day to be slow by 0.16 seconds per furlong which gave me a sectional timing performance for the winner of (35.01secs) to the 3 pole and (23.73secs) for the final two furlongs. This reads well for the chances of the Richard Hannon trained juvenile who believes his two-year-old colt will be much more at home over 6f going forward. Reportedly still babyish in the preliminaries on his debut there are no guarantees that he will make another leap forward on his second day at school but having showing such talent and potential on debut he looks worth an interest for this contest. Stable jockey Sean Levey who was on board on debut takes the ride again. The price has come in the past couple of days but he still looks worth a sporting bet considering he has been kindly drawn close to the stands rail in stall 19.
DIVIDEND (10f Lst Wolferton Stakes) – This four-year-old proved a revelation out in Dubai this winter having risen almost a stone in the handicap and finishing runner-up in a Group 2 contest while taking two handicaps beforehand. A career best (116) timefigure behind Ombudsman in the Group 1 Dubai Turf when finishing an admirable fifth (and taking home just over £74,000 on the day for connections) showed the benefits of finding a horse that can take part in the Meydan Winter season. This will be his first race since then and with a £70,000 first prize on offer for tomorrow’s (5.35) Ascot I am hoping that connections have him ready to rock and roll following an 80 day break. The betting seems to have dismissed his chance but if he is close to race fitness he might surprise a few in this Listed contest. Regular pilot Rossa Ryan has been booked and with a decent draw in stall 1 on the inside I will be hoping he can save energy before finding the gaps in the home straight.
0.75pt e/way Cut A Dash (9/1 Paddy Power, 8/1 Ladbrokes, Coral 4 places) 3.05 Royal Acot
0.5pt e/way Dividend (25/1 Betvictor, Coral, 22/1 general 4 places) 5.35 Royal Ascot