Yesterday’s Review
A night for the favourites…
1pt e/way Domain Expansion (96) – A shockingly poor performance from the selection who found nothing when asked for more rounding the home turn. She came home in 5th place beaten 13 lengths. A return to Santa Anita might see her in a better light.
1pt win Coach Pope (104) – The selection’s chances diminished when the stalls opened as likely front runner He Is No Lie stumbled and was left behind. Jockey Jose Ortiz (who indicated in a pre-race interview that he ideally wanted cover for his mount) ended up with no cover and racing three wide. He weakened out of contention into 4th place in the home straight beaten 6.25 lengths, and a return to the mile with hold up tactics looks badly needed.
0.5pt e/way Sale Shark (103) – A decent performance from the selection, who looked at one stage like he might make the frame, but weakened out of contention a furlong from home. He could only manage 6th place beaten 8.25 lengths, and a return to 7f looks the way to go forward.
Today’s Advice
COMANCHE BRAVE (5f 110Y Gd1) – The (5.48) Keeneland Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint looks a straight match between Bacio and Comanche Brave on recent form. Having backed the former at Royal Ascot, the worry today is whether he will be put under pace pressure with plenty of other trailblazers in opposition. The race should set up nicely for the selection who has looked a different horse since winning the July Cup at Newmarket. The price is a bit short tonight, but he looks to have a very solid chance.
DETERMINSTIC (8f Gd1) – Notable Speech looks a worthy favourite for the (8.20) Keeneland Breeders’ Cup Turf Mile (given that the race last time out in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile wasn’t run to suit the hold-up performers) as he won nicely by 1.25 lengths from the selection. The Miguel Clement trained five-year-old had previously been on a seven-race winning streak with five Grade 1 victories. However, the selection was forced to set his own pace last time out. While he may find the Godolphin trained star too strong again tonight, we might see a different horse if he can track the pace this time. He looks a solid each-way play at the odds on offer.
EL CORDOBES (12f Gd1) – This Charlie Appleby trained five-year-old has recorded very strong performances on the clock over tonight’s distance, and performed with credit when finishing third in this race last year at Del Mar behind Ethical Diamond. The pair re-oppose in tonight’s (9.36) Keeneland Breeders’ Cup Turf and the selection has a decent chance to turn the tables. The Willie Mullins trained six-year-old looks to have a tricky draw in stall 1. The selection didn’t get the clearest of runs through last year, but looked third best on the night. He looks to have been trained with tonight’s contest in mind, and put in a solid seasonal debut third place finish over 12f at Belmont in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Stakes. The run should bring him on nicely and with a decent draw in stall 5 tonight he looks a shade overpriced in the betting market.
FOREVER YOUNG (10f Gd1) – The Japanese superstar showed that he is still among the best horses in the world by easily defeating Bill Mott’s contender, Stars and Stripes, in the Grade 1 Jockey Gold Cup Stakes over 10f at Belmont last time out. He raced prominently (as he normally does) before taking up the running over 2 furlongs from home, and had just over 3 lengths to spare at the line. A half length winner over Sierra Leone in last year’s Classic at Del Mar with a clock-busting (123) timefigure, this year’s contest looks a weaker renewal.
A peak Sovereignty would give the selection something to worry about for tonight’s (10.16) Keeneland Breeders’ Cup Classic but that contestant looks to have had a troubled preparation with recent setbacks including an abscess and hoof problems. While he did win when last seen in August over 9f in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga by just under 5 lengths from Nitrogen while posting a (118) timefigure, I would feel more confident on the side of the Japanese runner given his overall profile. The fact that Godolphin have also entered Knightsbridge (who has looked a few lengths off being a superstar) is also a worry for me. The price of the favourite is as it should be, and hopefully he can show that he is the number one dirt horse in the world at the moment.
2pts win Comanche Brave (9/4 William Hill, 2/1 general) 5.48 Keeneland
1pt e/way Deterministic (8/1 general) 8.20 Keeneland
1pt e/way El Cordobes (22/1 Paddy Power, Unibet, Betvictor 4 places) 9.36 Keeneland
2pts win Forever Young (7/4 general) 10.16 Keeneland