Yesterday’s Review

1pt e/way Lilkian – As we know in sprint races things happen a lot quicker, and as a result awareness on the part of jockeys needs to be at an even higher level. I will try to break down last night’s (7.20) at Lingfield, using a Photographic Workshop Approach, how awareness and decisions can affect the results of races. There were a few moves during the race that David Probert made on Lilkian that I thought made things a lot more difficult for himself. The first thing to be aware of is that the contested lead that looked to be in the race on paper beforehand never happened. Cool Lightning (navy with yellow spots second from right two back) blew the start from stall (6). That left Bezzas’ Lad from stall (10) with an uncontested lead. David should be aware of this on Lilkian (red colours second from right) when he doesn’t see Cool Lightning in the lead.

The second thing to be aware of is that Danny Muscutt on Alafdhal (Purple and light blue stripes third from right) from stall (9) is stuck three wide. He wants David’s position. We can see that from the photo below.

David allows Danny to take his position. I don’t like this move from David. When you draw stall (3) on a prominent racer you shouldn’t be letting stall (9) take your position in a race where a likely contested pace hasn’t developed. Still all is not lost at this stage as we can see from the next photo.

Something to note here is the position of the 7/4 favourite Gold Medal (black and yellow with noseband in 9th position) when the selection of 6/1 Lilkian was made. I had envisioned this bad position for the favourite from stall (8). The next photo is a good head-on shot of which horses are in control of the race now.

Bezza’s Lad has had a nice lead in front. The thing that punters need to be aware of, and even moreso jockeys, is the form of these horses at the front of the race. Bezza’s Lad is in form, he has won his last race with a RPR (Racing Post Rating) of (80). Knockout Blow 66/1 (red colours on the outside with white cheekpieces) he has had to loop the whole field three wide. David can see him coming around his outside. Alafdhal is not in form. He just ran to a RPR of (68) at Brighton (12lbs below Bezza’s Lad). We can also use his recent Topspeed figures of 35, 27 and 24 as an illustration of that. Cool Lightning has now ended up behind Knockout Blow and wide going into the home turn. El Hombre (green colours on the inside) is in better form than Alafdhal. He won over course and distance two runs back getting an RPR of (76), and a (74) last time out at Wolverhampton. El Hombre gets 9lbs from Alafdhal today, due to the excellent Billy Loughnane’s 5lb claim. We can see from the photo that all the horses on the outside of Lilkian are not relevant. These horses need to be avoided. The next photo shows the 2 furlong pole.

The relevance of this photo is that it shows David has the option of going inside Alafdhal and El Hombre and avoiding these three weak horses on his outside. The next photo will show that the more difficult route to go outside was chosen.

Now Lilkian is trying to get outside, amongst three of the weakest horses in the first five positions, while the two strongest are on the inside. The next photo shows how David encounters massive traffic, getting stopped in his run and merely clears the whole path for the favourite Gold Medal (black and yellow stripes with noseband) to come up the inside.

At this point the race is over for Lilkian and unfortunately sixth place is the best he can achieve. So what can we learn from this workshop? It shows that jockeys need to be well up on their form just like punters do. It also shows that the winning and losing of races can be decided on very small details – pace, position, decisions to go left or right. Is anybody to blame? No. It is normal for us as punters to get frustrated with how races develop sometimes. Difficult decisions have to be made under pressure in all sports and there can only be one winner. Everybody is out there doing their best. Until the next Workshop. Stay Lucky.

 

Today’s Advice

No Investments

With just two Flat meetings in the UK today I couldn’t find a selection that ticked enough boxes for me.

Back Tomorrow,

Graham.