The Curragh hosted a two day card last weekend with fifteen races on offer, including the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes on opening day. Enthusiasts were offered free admission on Saturday with the day sponsored by the Irish National Professional Bookmakers Association. Looking at the results from the two days a recurring theme seems to be playing out at the track recently. If your selection is not on the lead, or racing prominently, it appears that conditions are against you. Of the fifteen races last week twelve of the winners raced on the lead or prominently judging by comments in running. The three that didn’t fit into that category were Crystal Black (in touch) on the Saturday, followed by Grappa Nonino (midfield) and Lady Lunette (rear of midfield) on Sunday. Something to be aware of when handicapping the card for future reference.

 

The feature race of the meeting the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes for 2 year olds was won by the Adrian Murray trained Bucanero Fuerte (105) in good style by 4 lengths from Porta Fortuna. It should be noted that some Irish Racing tracks will have winning race times that are recorded (0.20) slower than when the starting gates appear to open when compared to tracks like Kempton which are (0.20) faster, while most French track’s timing devices are triggered even later, usually when the first horse passes through the starting stalls. The winning figure for Bucanero Fuerte is quite low when comparing him to previous Phoenix Stakes winners: Little Big Bear (111), Ebro River (109), Lucky Vega (108), and Sioux Nation (113). As with all speed figures it is merely a starting point, and it is always advised to dig deeper into the sectional times to get closer to the truth. I gave the card a going allowance of (+0.06) seconds per furlong which left me with a (37.07)(35.10) three furlong split for the winner. The table below shows how that measures up with past winners of the race. When compared with Ebro River and Lucky Vega, for example, we can see that Bucanero Fuerte would be behind these past winners at this stage of his career.

SF (Speed Figure); GA (Going Allowance); Sect [1-3] (Sectional to 3 furlong point); With GA (With Going Allowance Incorporated).

 

PHOENIX STAKES	6F GP1 2YO
YEAR	HORSE	SF	GA	SECT [1-3]	SECT [4-6]	WITH GA [1-3]	WITH GA  [4-6]
2023	Bucanero Fuerte	105	[+0.06]	[37.25]	[35.28]	[37.07]	[35.10]
2022	Little Big Bear	111	[0]	[37.81]	[33.46]	[37.81]	[33.46]
2021	Ebro River	109	[+0.10]	[36.60]	[35.56]	[36.30]	[35.26]
2020	Lucky Vega	108	[+0.29]	[37.75]	[35.60]	[36.88]	[34.73]
2019	Siskin	101	[+0.73]	[41.08]	[36.06]	[38.89]	[33.87]
2018	Advertise	104	[0]	[38.89]	[33.40]	[38.89]	[33.40]
2017	Sioux Nation	113	[+0.12]	[38.23]	[33.49]	[37.87]	[33.13]

 

An interesting comparison is between Little Big Bear and Sioux Nation. At the time of Little Big Bear’s victory it was claimed by certain members of the media that we hadn’t seen a performance like it in 40 years. From the data above, we don’t have to go very far back to see that Sioux Nation ran 2 lengths per mile faster than Little Big Bear in 2017 while starting from a similar point at the 3 furlong pole, and was roughly 2 lengths per mile faster to the finish. The track was riding 5 lengths per mile slower the day Sioux Nation won, by my calculations.

 

Big speed figures were thin on the ground over the two days and it was Little Queenie (112) who recorded the fastest overall time in the final race on Saturday. Trainer Paul Flynn reckons she is just getting stronger and quicker now, and a new handicap mark of (84) shouldn’t stop her progressing again. It was nice to see old friend Moss Tucker (109) take the 6 furlong Group 3 Phoenix Sprint Stakes, and his overall target will be the Prix De L’Abbaye again this year. A better break from the stalls this year could see him improve on his fifth place in the race last year.

 

The Group 1 Prix Jacques Le Marois over the straight mile at Deauville was the feature race on Sunday, and the John & Thady Gosden trained Inspiral (120) reproduced her big speed figure from last year’s race at the much bigger odds of 78/10. It was a gutsy call to send her over just 11 days after what appeared to be a disappointing effort on Heavy ground at Goodwood. The drying Good to Soft ground on the day was much more manageable for her, and once again it was an inspired ride from Frankie Dettori to switch her from one side of the track in stall (1) all the way over to the far side to win by 1 1/4 lengths from Big Rock, who was dropping back in distance from the extended 10 furlongs of the French Derby. It was her fourth Group 1 victory, and the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket could be her next port of call.

 

The round track was riding slower on the day and Place Du Carrousel (113) took the Group 3 Prix Gontaut-Biron over 10 furlongs by 3/4 length from Bolthole, leading approaching the final furlong and doing enough at the finish. A tilt at the Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe has been mentioned for which she is currently a 66/1 chance, and she should at least appreciate the step up in trip.

 

Till the next instalment,

Stay Lucky,

Graham.