On January 22nd 1984, the great Al Davis (legendary owner of the NFL Raiders franchise), was interviewed after his team’s dominant 38-9 victory over the Washington Redskins in Super Bowl XVIII at Tampa Stadium. He chose the perfect time to use his now famous catchphrase “Just Win Baby” in his victory speech. Al’s famous words can be viewed below, and sum up competition at all levels perfectly.

 

 

When I started this website last April I wasn’t expecting the opening results to go the way they did. In 2009 I decided to concentrate my betting mainly to sand racing. I started my own successful website called Lordofthesand.com, a parody on Michael Flatley’s Lord Of the Dance at the time, but a serious devotion to all-weather racing speed figures and sectional timing. Profits were consistent, and as the years passed I spent most of my spare time researching Turf racing. Many hours were spent putting together median times for UK, Irish, French, Dubai and Hong Kong racing. Turf racing was proving profitable too in 2021 and 2022. Last season’s turf season, however, wasn’t playing ball as they say…Here’s how the first three months shaped up:

 

TURF SELECTIONS 2023	POINTS STAKED	PROFIT/LOSS
APRIL	42	[ – 5 PTS]
MAY	52	[ – 18.8 PTS]
JUNE	130.5	[ – 41.92 PTS]
TOTAL POINTS	224.5	[ – 65.72 PTS]

 

Not good to say the least. The most annoying point of it came when the Clerk of the Course at Windsor had watered the track to a lowly 5.9 on the Going Stick before the 12th June meeting. This was at a time when the country was experiencing a heat wave with temperatures hitting 29 degrees. With thunderstorms forecast, my 4pts staked on good ground liking Carp Kid proved naive. The horse finished a well beaten sixth of seven on ground officially described as Good. My analysis of the ground that day had the times on the Round Course twenty five lengths per mile slower than standard! An overwatered Royal Ascot merely confirmed my view that the way these courses were being managed was not helpful to punters. It was a good time to take a break and come back fresh for the All-Weather season. Carp Kid won his next two races on better ground….

Starting fresh from September 2023 through to March 2024, concentrating mainly on the All-Weather, proved a wise decision.

 

ALL-WEATHER SELECTIONS 2023/2024	POINTS STAKED	PROFIT/LOSS
SEPTEMBER 2023 – MARCH 2024	331	[+ 58.91 PTS]
TOTAL POINTS	331	[+58.91 PTS]

 

A 17.80% Return On Investment proved the All-Weather to be a much more reliable and profitable avenue than the Turf. All selections were proofed to Smart Betting Club. Obviously, I am not going to solely blame the watering policy for my lack of profits during the early part of the Turf season. Even when we have one of the country’s top trainers saying the overwatering was the worst he has seen in thirty one years of racing. I am going to refer readers to another hero of mine from the NFL scene, former head coach of the New York Giants Bill Parcells, who famously said “You are what your record says you are.” As a form analyst that specialises in speed figures and sectional timing I found that there was also way too much racing during the middle of the Turf season, or the “Silly Season” as it is also known as. Trying to keep on top of all the Turf racing, and leaning more towards horses that put together high speed figures resulted in spreading myself too thin across too much racing. This approach also led to lower profits in All-Weather racing. Going forward I feel it would be more profitable to concentrate on less races, and go more in-depth into these races, with more emphasis on pace and position than speed figures. Which leads me to my next point.

 

With Chelmsford racecourse finally publishing their sectional times beginning on January 21st this year, it has been a good time to try and marry together many years of manual sectional times from the track with the current data available from Course Track. In recent years, over a long period of time, punters could simply bet the “figure” horse and collect the profits. However, this has not been the case recently as much as it has been in the past. Punters need to be position and pace sensitive more than ever now with the growth of Tapeta racing in the UK, and the rise in races being less truly run today. So that’s what I have been working on lately, putting together pace markers for the All-Weather tracks in the UK. I am hoping that the end result will be a more accurate idea of where a horse will be positioned during a race which will in turn lead to greater profits.

 

Hopefully, I can put out even better selections in the future now that we have the complete sectional timing picture from every All-Weather track in the UK at our disposal. And in the words of the great Al Davis – “Just Win Baby!”

 

Till the next instalment,

Stay Lucky,

Graham.