The 2024 Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury looked to provide a fascinating match-up between the six-time Group 1 winning five-year-old mare Inspiral and last year’s six length winning Queen Elizabeth II winner Big Rock. The French trained challenger had been impressive last October at Ascot for trainer Christopher Head when making all the running while recording a noteworthy (118) speed figure. A recent switch to lesser known trainer Maurizio Guarnieri left enthusiast’s wondering if that type of performance could be replicated from a different stable. Other interesting candidates included last year’s Group 2 Bet365 Mile winner Charyn and the Group 2 Daniel Wildenstein winner Poker Face.

Proper Timely Going Descriptions For The Public

Ground conditions for Newbury on Saturday were taken at 5.30am on the morning of the race, and advertised as Good with a Going Stick reading of (6.0). How we are in a situation in 2024, with all the data we have available at our fingertips, whereby punters are expected to use a going description taken over eight hours before the first race is one of the great mysteries of the British Horseracing Authority. It should be mandatory that a going description and reading should be made available to the betting public thirty minutes before the first race. It is unacceptable in today’s environment that Clerks Of The Course can give a reading many hours before a meeting, and then change the going to something completely different straight after the first race, or in some cases make no change at all! Weather on the day was forecast as sunny with a small risk of a shower, and a maximum temperature of 19 degrees celsius. The winning times on the straight course using the Lethal Levi and Sonny Liston races indicated conditions were riding 12.5 lengths per mile faster than my standards. This was an indication that the ground had dried out significantly throughout the course of the day since that reading was taken at 5.30am. The John and Thady Gosden trained 22/1 shot Audience, a decent Group 3 winner of the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket last season over seven furlongs, looked to provide the pacemaking duties for his 2/1 favourite stablemate Inspiral. Jockey Robert Havlin made the running on the far side of the main group, and when he went clear over two furlongs from home the response from those in behind was very limited. The Roger Varian trained Charyn was the only one to get within two lengths of the winner, with favourite Inspiral over twelve lengths behind, and Big Rock fifteen lengths adrift at the line.

Analysis and Historical Context

Audience (111) returning from a 218 day break has gone well when fresh in the past, and while the step up in trip looked worth exploring this still proved a sizeable upset. The speed figure proved lowly mainly due to the inefficient early energy distribution from the winner. Tactics like this can occasionally come off and “getting the opposition out of their comfort zone” has provided plenty of upsets in the past. However, now thanks to published sectional data from TPD and Course Track, we can start to evaluate these type of performances better than previously. It had been put forward on the Attheraces post race analysis that Baaeed’s win in 2022 would be a similar effort to weigh up the performance against as both races took place on ground advertised as Good. However, with the winning times riding 8.5 lengths per mile slower that day, and the race being run somewhat differently, there may be a better race to compare the performance to. The table below shows the sectional times for the past four Lockinge Stakes, and we can see from the adjusted times where Audience’s win fits in with past victories.

SF – Speed Figure, Sect [1-6] – Winner’s time to the 6 Furlong point, Sect [7-8] – Winner’s final 2 furlong time, GA secs/f – Going Allowance in seconds per furlong for conditions on the day, Sect [1-6] with GA – Winner’s time to the 6 furlong point adjusted using seconds per furlong going allowance, Sect [7-8] with GA – Winner’s final 2 furlong time adjusted using seconds per furlong going allowance.

We can see concentrating on the final three columns that the 2023 winner Modern Games would rank superior to Audience’s performance in that although he reached the two furlong point 0.27secs later than Audience, using our going allowances, he finished 0.75secs faster than Audience in the final two furlongs. It should be noted how superior Palace Pier’s victory in 2021 would be to this year’s winner, 0.67secs faster to the two furlong point and 0.38secs faster in the final two furlongs. I would encourage the enthusiast to rewatch the discussed races to gauge how much pressure each horse was under at the finish. I think we can all agree that with sectional timing more available nowadays it does allow us to weigh up winners a lot easier, and compare today’s winners with past winners even more accurately than when sectional timing was not officially published.

Of the beaten horses it should be noted that while conditions may have been too fast for Big Rock, his second place finish behind the performance of the season last year by Ace Impact at Chantilly was on Good ground. The winning times that day indicated a surface that was very much on the fast side of standard times. There should be serious question marks now regarding his form, and likelihood of repeating his Ascot romp. With regards to Inspiral it would have been more encouraging for punters if John Gosden had been more vocal about Inspiral’s fitness before the race than after the race.

Till the next review,

Stay Lucky,

Graham