An eight race card on the New Course at Cheltenham last Saturday provided plenty of clues for National Hunt enthusiasts with an eye on the big festival in March. The going was described as Good To Soft with a going stick reading of (5.7) taken the day before at 3.30pm, with the rails out eight yards. A going stick reading on the morning would have been preferable, and the overall times were on the slow side compared to par.  It should be noted that the BHA website published the final three races on the card as Official Calculated Times, indicating difficulties in accurate timings (which happens far too regularly for my liking). I would advise clock watchers to use the excellent Timeform website, who publish their own timings, and are a great reference point. As always with the speed ratings (117) represents Grade 1 Par, and each step down the class ladder is a drop of two points (two lengths per mile). Speed ratings are inserted after the relevant horse’s name.

 

Sir Gino Lays Down A Marker

Sir Gino (110) shot to the head of the Triumph Hurdle market with an impressive display to see off Burdett Road (105) by an easy looking ten lengths in the juvenile hurdle trial. Milan Tino (104) set the pace before the eventual winner made headway from a prominent position four out, and cruised past approaching the last. Connections have always felt he was very smart, and could also jump a fence in the future. He looks to have the Triumph Hurdle at his mercy, and the betting market odds of 6/4 confirm this. Burdett Road was disappointing with a performance that couldn’t match his (108) figure from November, even taking into account a five pound rise in weight carried. Course Track provided sectional timing for the meeting, and I always enjoy putting a going allowance on the times with a view to comparing performances on the day with notable similar performances from the past. The table below shows the adjusted times for Sir Gino’s performance compared to two previous Triumph Hurdle winners Vauban (2022), and Quilixios (2021). It should be noted that I used the Noble Yeats and Gidleigh Park races to frame a going allowance for the hurdles course on the day. A going allowance for Vauban was framed using The Nice Guy and Vauban races, and for Quilixios I used the Galopin Des Champs race. I have also allowed (3.31 seconds) for 50 yards of rail movement at 14.58 seconds/per furlong over the distance (representing a standard speed figure of 100), reducing final time and sectional time to the four furlong mark for Sir Gino’s race. Standard Rails were in place for Vauban and Quilixios.

 

Table Headings have been abbreviated as: SF (Speed Figure); GA (Going Alowance In Seconds Per Furlong); Total GA (Seconds Per Furlong x Race Distance); Adj. Time (Adjusted Time – Winning Time minus Total Going Allowance); SECT TO 4F (Winner’s sectional Time to four furlong mark); Adj. Sect To 4F (Winner’s adjusted sectional time to four furlong mark);  Adj. 4F TO FIN (Winner’s Adjusted Sectional Time from the four furlong mark to finish).

 

DATE	WINNER	SF	Time	GA	Total GA	Adj. Time	SECT TO 4F	Adj. Sect To 4F	Adj. 4F TO FIN
27/01/24	Sir Gino	[110]	4.09.75	[+0.56]	[-9.42]	4.00.33	3.16.32	[3.09.14]	[51.19]
18/03/22	Vauban	[112]	4.05.85	[+0.36]	[-6.05]	3.59.80	3.13.36	[3.08.75]	[51.05]
19/03/21	Quilixios	[107]	4.06.37	[+0.27]	[-4.54]	4.01.83	3.13.23	[3.09.77]	[52.06]

 

The important columns to note following adjustments are the final two columns. These three races were chosen as the three winners reached the four furlong mark, using Course Track sectionals, in similar enough times, which allows a clearer analysis of the final four furlong time. It should be noted that Sir Gino only jumped one hurdle throughout his final four furlongs, as opposed to Vauban and Quilixios who had two obstacles to negotiate. Adjusting for this would just make Sir Gino’s final sectional faster, so I left it as it is for comparison purposes. The importance of the exercise is to show the advantage an awareness of final times and sectional timing can have over traditional handicap ratings such as Racing Post Ratings as an example. The RPR’s for the three performances taken from the Racing Post Website read Sir Gino (143), Vauban (147), and Quilixios (149). An awareness of time would show that Vauban’s performance should be top rated (and his future achievement of a 160 RPR would be a strong confirmation of the analysis), followed by Sir Gino, and finally Quilixios.

 

Ginny’s Destiny Progresses Again

Ginny’s Destiny (122) stepped up on his previous best when taking the Class 2 Timeform Novice’s Handicap Chase, carrying the welter burden of twelve stone over the extended two miles four furlongs, by 2 3/4 lengths from a staying on Theatre Man (120). This was the standout effort on the clock on the day from the prominent racer, and confirmed trainer Paul Nicholls quote that the massive eight-year-old gelding had improved greatly in his homework. The clock confirmed it too with a substantial rise from his (116) speed rating when beating Grey Dawning (an impressive winner since) by 3/4 length in December over course and distance. It is interesting that his trainer mentioned Stage Star, who himself had recorded a (123) figure in the Grade 3 Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase in November, and won this very race last year. Theatre Man was under pressure four out, but was noted making good headway in the home straight which was backed up by the fastest closing four furlong sectional of 58.68secs. A step back up in trip should see the Richard Bandey trained eight-year-old in a better light.

 

Drop Back In Trip Suits Ga Law

Ga Law (118) took the Grade 3 Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Pocast Handicap Chase, over the extended two mile four furlong trip, by 1 3/4 lengths from the lightly weighted Lounge Lizzard (117). The Jamie Snowden trained eight-year-old has taken time to recover from a bad fall at Doncaster last year. A drop back in trip from the Grade 3 Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury proved just the ticket. His festival options would now appear to be the Plate or Ultima in March. It will be interesting to see if he can build on this going forward now.

 

Capodanno Still To Impress

Capodanno (105) recorded the lowest figure on the card when finishing 2 3/4 lengths ahead of The Real Whacker (104) in the Grade 2 Paddy Power Cotswold Chase over the extended three miles and a furlong. This also reflects his overall profile which is very hit and miss. Connections of the second have been quoted as being happy with the performance, but the eight-year-old has yet to impress this season, and looks a long way off repeating his Brown Advisory figure of (117) from last year at the moment.

 

First Grade 1 For Joe And Freddie

Elixir De Nutz (111) sprang a 22/1 surprise in the Grade 1 My Pension Expert Clarence House Chase, over the extended sixteen furlongs, giving trainer Joe Tizzard and jockey Freddie Gingell their first Grade 1 victory. The race looked to be at the mercy of the Nicky Henderson trained 1/4 favourite Jonbon (110), however a poor round of jumping, and a very bad mistake four out put paid to his chances. The fact that he was able to recover, and even lead two out before giving best after the last, showed the class advantage he had over his rivals on the day. This was a far from ideal prep for the second with regards to the Champion Chase in March, and resulted in the eight-year-old drifting out in the betting to 4/1. Connections of the winner are also entered in the race, and would only be fighting it out for the places on his best form. Fugitif (107) found the step back in trip against him following his win over the extended two mile four furlongs in the Grade 3 Gold Cup last month. He was noted putting in the fastest closing four furlong sectional of 61.39secs, and connections will be looking forward to stepping him back up in distance for the Ryanair.

 

Lossiemouth For The Mares Hurdle

Lossiemouth (107) proved a revelation in the Grade 2 Unibet Hurdle when coming home an easy looking 9 1/2 lengths clear of the Harry Fry trained Love Envoi (102). The final time may not have been scintillating, but the manner of the performance certainly was. A closing four furlong sectional of 52.66secs was easily the best recorded on the day, and connections look to have the Mares Hurdle at their mercy (for which she is now a general 4/6 odds-on chance). It was no surprise to hear fellow enthusiasts mention a tilt at the imperious (yet under the weather) Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle.

 

Noble Yeats And Paisley Park To The Fore

Noble Yeats (119) showed his remarkable versatility when outbattling everybody’s favourite Paisley Park (118) by a head in the Grade 2 Cleeve Hurdle over the extended two miles seven furlongs. Last year’s Grand National fourth looked to be in real trouble on the home turn, but showed great tenacity to respond to jockey Harry Cobden’s urgings, before hitting the front on the run-in and eventually holding off the Emma Lavelle trained twelve-year-old. The Grand National will again be the target this season, but the Stayers Hurdle fits nicely into his schedule along the way. It would be a surprise if he were able to withstand the younger brigade in the race, but quotes of 12/1 show that he is no back number just yet. Strong Leader (118) recorded the fastest final four furlong sectional in 54.91secs, appreciating the step up in trip and first-time cheekpieces. The Olly Murphy stable will have been delighted with this effort, which now opens up plenty of options for the seven-year old.

 

Gidleigh Still Unbeaten

The unbeaten Gidleigh Park (112) stayed on well to take the Grade 2 Classic Novice’s Hurdle over the extended two mile four furlong trip rounding out the action on the day. The Harry Fry trained six-year-old finished 1/2 length ahead of Lucky Place (111), and had to battle all the way to the line in a race that probably wasn’t run to suit. Connections are still undecided as to which novice hurdle race to aim for in March, and he holds entries in both the Baring Bingham over two mile five, and the Albert Bartlett over the extended two mile seven furlong trip. It was encouraging to see him maintain his unbeaten record at his first try in Graded company.

 

Until the next review,

Stay Lucky,

Graham