Yesterday’s Review

0.75pt e/way Aperoll (100) – An excellent performance from the selection who had to change her running style from the previous day by trying to make all the running from her low draw. She was only worried out of it over a furlong out but kept battling all the way to the line. The winner was drawn 13 of 14 runners. Result 3rd 11/1 adv…12/1 SP (Rule 4 25p as the 11/4 favourite Aix La Chapelle was withdrawn at the start)

 

1pt e/way Laureate Crown (102) – I have been writing about a high draw advantage on the stands side all week and the results have borne that out. The first seven home in this race all raced stands side. Jockey Jamie Spencer must have been “in his own world” all week as he was drawn in stall 16 but couldn’t wait to come further over to the far side than it would have been to race on the favoured stands side. The three-year-old produced a mighty performance to win his race on the far side finishing in 12th place beaten 5.75 lengths (I do not count 8th placed Wise Prince as having raced far side for the whole of the race as he joined the stands side group over a furlong from home). The far side have had little chance all week due to a massive stands side draw bias. Jockey Jamie Spencer totally ignored this and did his own thing as he has been known to do when least expected throughout his career.

 

0.75pt e/way Bucaneer’s Spirit (98) – The selection did best of those with a double figure draw, however, he was given too much to do with the position that he raced from in rear. He did well reaching the frame finishing fourth beaten 5 lengths as he raced keenly early on and tried to make up a lot of ground on the front three who were all much better drawn and raced more forward. Result 4th 6/1, 5/1 adv…8/1 SP (Rule 4 5p)

 

Today’s Advice

TOPAZ (6f Gp3) – The (2.30) Royal Ascot Albany Stakes for two-year-old fillies looks a strong renewal and at the prices I will be letting the short priced favourite Sun Goddess win without my money on her. Once again the raw data available doesn’t leap off the page but as with quite a few of her trainer’s contestants this week they tend to leave their earlier form well behind on the big day. I did rate a few of the lower drawn contestants in this race, but I settled for one who also has decent form and is drawn high enough to do herself justice. The Andrew Balding trained Jolivette looked a real beauty when winning on debut over 6f at Newmarket. Her adjusted sectional times on the day indicated that she is a real top class filly and if she was drawn a shade higher she may well have been the selection. I settled on the Jack Channon trained daughter of Persian Force who ran a cracker in behind the Juddmonte filly also on debut. Although the winner does appear to have more substance to her the runner-up made up a nice bit of ground from the rear on the day just going down by a neck in the end. I am hoping jockey Tom Marquand can make a bit of use of his higher draw in stall 15 today, and she looks overpriced if she can come forward from Newmarket. The other two worth mentioning that looked top class on debut were Silent Beauty and Libertango, but I had to pass them over given how the draw has been playing out on the straight course this week. The draw did flip mid-festival last season, but until it does I will be sticking with the higher drawn contestants.

 

OUTFIELDER (6f Gp1) – Venetian Sun looked backed to her best last time out at Haydock as she travelled like a dream at the business end before bolting up by 3 lengths from the William Haggas trained Division. She makes little appeal to me at her price this morning, although she does appear to be the most likely winner on form of the (3.05) Royal Ascot Commonwealth Cup. I was happy to land on the selection who is drawn 21 of 22 and has got his career back on track with two victories at Turfway Park and Churchill Downs recently. Last time out he raced prominently in the Listed William Walker Stakes at Churchill Downs on turf having had to overcome the widest draw early on. He came home a comfortable 3 lengths clear of the Wathnan trained Sandal’s Song who was also beaten 3 lengths by another of today’s contestants Charles Darwin in last year’s Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Trainer Wesley Ward has applied the tongue tie today which does have me questioning the need for it as the selection was not wearing one according to the form book the last twice. A minor detail, perhaps, but overall the selection looks a bit overpriced if the draw turns out to be as favourable as it has been so far this week.

 

INSANITY (11f 211y Hcap) – This course and distance winning six-year-old caught the eye last time out on seasonal debut behind Have Secret at Potefract who was putting in a career best (115) timefigure on the clock on the day. The selection travelled well from the rear and kept on all the way to the line to finish 2.25 lengths behind the winner. The handicapper has left him alone for that performance, and judging by his last two performance on decent ground (a half length runner-up from the same handicap mark over 12f at York behind Grey Cuban being the other) he looks ready to make his presence felt for today’s (3.40) Royal Ascot Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes. Regular pilot Rossa Ryan (who has won twice on the selection before) is back on board, and we will be hoping he can save ground in stall 3 before finding a clear passage when the race hots up on the home turn.

 

IPANEMA QUEEN/SOVEREIGN SPELL/BACIO (5f Hcap) – The (6.10) Royal Ascot Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap looks one of the races of the meeting for timefigure enthusiasts as 28 runners will blast up the straight over the minimum trip. I will again be siding with the higher drawn contestants and the Robson De Aguiar trained IPANEMA QUEEN holds my top timefigure at the weights having recorded a (113) when just failing to make all the running over 6f at Dundalk back in March behind her stablemate Flanker Jet. I awarded her a (110) timefigure over the minimum trip at The Curragh last August when trained by Adrian Murray and coming home a head clear of the Aidan O’Brien trained Kansas. Equally effective on turf as she is on the sand she looks overpriced this morning back on a sound surface and drawn 29 of 28 runners.

SOVEREIGN SPELL disappointed when selected by this blog last time out over 6f at Newmarket but I felt that race may have come too soon just 16 days after posting a career best (112) timefigure over the same course and distance when comfortably accounting for Advertised by a half length. The runner-up hasn’t backed up the form yet, but if the Kevin Philippart De Foy trained selection can return to his previous best he could be coming home strongly if they overdo things up front.

BACIO was my final selection in this race and I have to say the price has really come in this morning probably due to being drawn right against the stand side rail having made most of the running in his recent wins at Del Mar and Churchill Downs over the minimum trip. I only awarded him a (108) timefigure for his recent win at Churchill Downs over the minimum trip on the turf, and it should be noted that he was only carrying 8st 4lb that day. He has to shoulder an extra 15lb today. Nevertheless, he did do it very comfortably by 2 lengths at the line and conditions should suit him today.

 

0.75pt e/way Topaz (20/1 Betvictor, 18/1 general 4 places) 2.30 Royal Ascot

0.75pt e/way Outfielder (22/1 general 4 places) 3.05 Royal Ascot

1pt e/way Insanity (14/1 Unibet, 12/1 William Hill, Betfred 5 places) 3.40 Royal Ascot

1pt e/way Ipanema Queen (25/1 William Hill, Boylesports, 22/1 Betfred 6 places) 6.10 Royal Ascot

0.75pt e/way Sovereign Spell (20/1 Paddy Power, Skybet, Boylesports 6 places) 6.10 Royal Ascot

0.75pt e/way Bacio (11/2 Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet 5 places) 6.10 Royal Ascot