Yesterday’s Review
1pt win Lady Lilac (104) – The selection raced prominently and had a similar trip to the winner but looked laboured when asked to find another gear in the home straight only managing fifth place beaten 3 lengths. This was below her seasonal debut on the clock and she will need to bounce back if she is to win from this higher mark.
Today’s Advice
AEROINVINCIBLE (7f Hcap) – The (9.20) Sha Tin has an attractive shape to the contest for the selection considering the favourite Fit For Beauty is drawn out wide in stall 11 with third in the betting The Red Hare next door in stall 10. Andrea Atzeni’s mount steps up to Class 3 having been very progressive in his last three starts with two wins and a second place finish. His two latest course and wins have been franked by Lucky McQueen, Glorious Ryder, Absolute Honour and All Round Winner and with the perfect draw in stall 2 for one who likes to race forward he has a lot in his favour for this morning’s contest.
ROYAL CHAMPION (10f Group 1) – With 22 wins from 29 races Romantic Warrior has been a horse of a lifetime for connections and he looks to be the one they all have to beat for this morning’s (9.55) Sha Tin. There had been signs that he may not be the force of old this season but his latest win over course and distance by 4 lengths over Ensued in the Group 1 Citi Hong Kong Gold Cup when recording a (117) timefigure was much more like the champion of old. When it comes to Group 1 performers on the clock we know that a (117) timefigure is the number we look for to show that you are one of the best in the world at your craft. Romantic Warrior’s (122) timefigure when beating Poker Face by 4.5 lengths in last year’s Jebel Hatta at Meydan on turf was a massive performance on the clock, but to repeat that 29 days later in the Saudi Cup when beaten a neck by Forever Young on dirt in one of THE great races of our generation was a feat that only the very best of all-time could achieve. He looks the most likely winner for today’s contest but at a decent shade of odds-on I will be watching rather than playing.
The selection has raised his game to a new level recently and having selected him the last twice when winning the Group 2 Bahrain International Trophy and the Group 1 Neom Turf Cup at Riyadh I feel he has been massively disrespected in the betting market for this morning’s race. His last three timefigures read (117), (117), (117) and although he is now eight years old (much like the favourite) he is in the form of his life. While the opposition was below Group 1 standard last time out it will be very interesting to see if he can maintain his rock solid form.
The only caveat I will put on him this morning is his draw in stall 1 which was a bit of a downer considering we know it can be the “coffin box” on some occasions. However, with one of the world’s best jockeys in the world on board once again in Oisin Murphy if anyone can navigate a decent passage through it will be the magic man from Kerry. There are plenty of other champions in opposition in the Japanese trained Masquerade Ball and the French star Sosie but I feel it would be rude not to have a small interest in the Karl Burke trained champion once again.
MIGHTY MASTS (7f Hcap) – The final race on the card at Sha Tin this morning has a real quality look to it and having selected Salon S and Winning Ovation in the past there were plenty of options available. The favourite, Salon S, likes to get on with things up front and it will be interesting to see if Drombeg Banner from stall 12 applies early pressure to him. HIs best timefigure for me was a (110) when comfortably taking care of the disappointing Ghorgan over course and distance back in February and although still unbeaten he looks a very short price for this morning’s (11.10) Sha Tin.
Winning Ovation holds the top timefigure with a (112) recorded when finishing a neck ahead of Six Pack over course and distance last month. He does carry 9lbs more this morning and finished a head in front of that rival on today’s terms last time out. He looks a live threat to the favourite having won three of his last four races but looks a shade tight at the prices on offer.
The selection has been progressing nicely this year and was mightily impressive three weeks ago when leaving Fit For Beauty just over 3 lengths in his wake. He was held up in rear and made good headway before bounding clear a furlong from home. It is interesting that he carries 17lbs less in weight today and if he is in the same form and they go quick enough up front he looks the value play at the prices on offer.
0.75pt e/way Aeroinvincible (4/1 Paddy Power, Betfred, Skybet 4 places) 9.20 Sha Tin
0.5pt e/way Royal Champion (20/1 Paddy Power, Skybet, 18/1 Betfred) 9.55 Sha Tin
1pt e/way Mighty Masts (11/2 Paddy Power, Betfred, Skybet 4 places) 11.10 Sha Tin
0.75pt e/way Ashen (33/1 Paddy Power, 25/1 Betvictor, Skybet 4 places) 3.45 Musselburgh (Already Advised)