Yesterday’s Review
1pt win Naina (102) – The selection backed up her recent excellent effort over course and distance proving two and a quarter lengths too good for he opposition. Jockey Christian Howarth got the fractions spot on and she bounded clear in the finish. Her latest performance was top of the timefigure chart and despite having plenty in her favour she drifted in the market at the off. The negative comments from the Racingtv analyst regarding her as being “a small filly who didn’t look like she trained on from her two-year old career and looked held from a handicap mark of 82” proved well wide of the mark on this occasion….Result 1st 7/2 adv….9/2 SP.
Today’s Advice
An excellent card at Longchamp for Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe day.
RAYIF (7f Gp1 2yo) – This 2-year-old colt put up the top timefigure of today’s (1.15) Longchamp field when coming home nicely in front by two and a half lengths in the Group 3 Francois Boutin over the straight 7f at Deauville back in August. He is an unbeaten two from two at the moment and he looks to have an edge over today’s opposition on what we have seen so far.
Nighttime has won his last three including a Group 3 over course and distance last time out, while A Bit Of Spirit looks best of the home challenge having also taken a Group 3 event over 7f at Sandown for trainer Clive Cox.
The price has moved from 10/3 into a general 9/4 for the selection now and as a hold up horse stakes will be kept low as we are still learning about these juveniles.
AVENTURE (12f Gp1) – This year’s big Group 1 race seems to lack the star quality of past year’s winners. Favourite Minnie Hauk has put together an unbeaten season so far but she has yet to win the hearts of all enthusiasts while showing a champion’s turn of foot. I believe Whirl would have beaten her in the Oaks with a more evenly run tempo, but she did take the Yorkshire Oaks with great authority in a genuine Group 1 time. She has plenty in her favour today although I am happy to let her win at the prices on offer.
Christophe Ferland’s four-year-old filly looks to have a solid chance in today’s (3.05) Longchamp, and her form with last year’s winner Bluestocking is very strong on the clock both in the Prix Vermeille and the big race. She has been trained with this year’s renewal in mind and looked in fine form when taking the Prix Vermeille from Gezora by a length and a half. With an extra week to recover from her exertions this year it would be great to see her go one place better.
ONE LOOK and ROYAL DRESS (10f Gp 1 Filles and Mares) – The (3.50) Longchamp looks one of the most interesting races on the card. Favourite See The Fire has been performing with credit in Group 1 races this season having romped home by 12 lengths in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York back in May. This will be her first trip abroad and I am happy to look elsewhere at the prices, however.
I was leaning towards One Look’s chances early on but I was worried that the only time she crossed the sea proved disappointing at Ascot. She clocked an excellent (115) timefigure when taking the Group 3 Meadow Court Stakes at The Curragh by a length from Azada and has since been purchased by Wathnan Racing. First time cheekpieces have been applied, and she looked to have a nice prep run behind Barnavara in the Blandford Stakes at The Curragh last month. The lack of foreign form does temper enthusiasm.
The selection does have form abroad having come from last to a short head second to Zabeel Light in a Group 3 event at Chantilly recently. The race was strongly run and her (116) timefigure compares well with today’s rivals. It will be interesting to see if the front-runners Barnavara and Qilin Queen provide a truly run race.
In the other races on the card I liked Green Spirit in the (12.40) and Al Ghadeer in the (2.25) but was happy to just watch them at the short prices on offer.
1pt win Rayif (2/1 General) 1.15 Longchamp
1pt e/way Aventure (6/1 William Hill, 11/2 Ladbrokes, Corals 4 places) 3.05 Longchamp
1pt win One Look (12/1 William Hill, Paddy Power, 11/1 Corals) 3.50 Longchamp
0.5pt e/way Royal Dress (28/1 Paddy Power, 25/1 William Hill, Corals 4 places) 3.50 Longchamp