Plenty of Oaks and Derby trials last week in the UK that brought out some delightful comments on social media, which I always find entertaining. Longchamp also hosted both French Guineas on Sunday, and it is probably best to start there where the Brian Meehan trained Isaac Shelby went off a 3/1 second favourite. The reason I will start there is due to the eye watering (120) speed figure he recorded at Newbury in the Greenham Stakes just over three weeks previously. After drawing stall (1) for the big race, and having made all at Newbury, backers could have assumed that Sean Levey would simply make all again in France where they break into a rash if they go too fast early on. Instead of keeping it simple connections tried to play the French at their own game and were left with egg on their face. The son of Night of Thunder tried to track the pace and ended up doing a bit too much, before being headed on the line by 33/1 shot Marhaba Ya Sanafi who recorded a (113) speed figure. I didn’t get involved in the race (congratulations to all those shrewdies on Twitter that backed the winner) and was pondering over the 8/1 available after the Greenham. However over the years I have always preferred my selections to run their (112) on their seasonal debut trial and their (120) in the big race. Ce’st la vie.
The fillies event was won by Christopher Head’s Blue Rose Cen (115) by 1 3/4 lengths from Lindy. She has a potent turn of foot for one with a pedigree that will enable her to race over further. The Prix De Diane over the extended ten furlongs looks next on the agenda. Speaking of fillies there was one that won the Cheshire Oaks on Wednesday that gave me a nice chuckle at the varying comments on social media. Aidan O’Brien’s Galileo filly shot to the head of the Epsom Oaks market with an impressive 22 length victory. Once again we are talking about ground conditions and the importance of accurate going descriptions. Conditions at Longchamp were described as Very Soft but the times were saying it was closer to Good to Soft. The ground for the opening day of the Chester May meeting was described as Soft (6.7) with a slight wind half against. How one interprets these Soft ground times can lead to some differing speed figures to say the least. A factor that seems to get overlooked by many, in my opinion, is the fact that the ground is very rarely going to stay the same from the first race to the last. It can usually be seen from accurate medians that the competitors in the first race on the day are usually racing on the best of the ground and as the meeting progresses the times get slower as the ground opens up. With that in mind, it is not unusual that the speed figures recorded are usually taken as being on par more often than not. I awarded Savethelastdance a (105) on ground I estimated to be 40 lengths per mile slower than standard. It was interesting that connections felt she would be even better on a sounder surface. Comments that she beat nothing and that she finished faster than the two sprints on the same card may not tell us much more. The TPD final furlong being recorded as faster than the previous one is a stat that should instill some trepidation for enthusiasts that are downplaying her performance. Interestingly she ran her race more efficiently (104.43%) than Danger Alert (96.06%) and Arrest (95.66%). Energy distribution percentages supplied by the excellent Attheraces website and Simon Rowlands.
Arrest won the Chester Vase by a mere 6 1/2 lengths recording a (109) in the process. On this occasion connections have mentioned that cut in the ground may be of importance for this son of Frankel. Point Lonsdale (115) had to dig deep into his reserves to get the better of mudlark Mujtaba in the Huxley Group 2 Stakes on Friday over the extended ten furlongs. I was hovering over Mujtaba before the event but passed after reading Angus Gold’s comments about track suitability. An entry in the Coronation Cup at Epsom for the winner will provide a new test over twelve furlongs. Hamish (113) took the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes over the extended 13 furlongs on Thursday and will go in search of that elusive Group 2 preferably with some cut in the ground. Zinc White’s (112) following a 561 day break over the Chester Cup trip was his first run for new trainer Ian Williams. Reported to be a fragile sort it will be interesting to see his next entry from an 8lb higher mark. Hackman (112) recorded a very decent number sandwiched between two races that were run at (102.42%) and (103.04%) race finish by my calculations when rail movements were taken into account. The final three races may flatter Hugo Palmer’s son of Mehmas but I wouldn’t want to be making light of this performance too much going forward. Dreams of the Norfolk Stakes at Ascot may not be too far fetched.
The Lingfield Derby trials had to be moved from the waterlogged turf to the polytrack on Saturday and Sacred (116) was the big number on the day. Clock followers of her (120) performance in the 2021 Hungerford won’t need reminding of past comments regarding the Exceed and Excel mare who has been described as a “funny old bird”. With limited opportunities over her preferred seven furlongs it may well be a return to the Platinum Jubilee Stakes over six furlongs at Ascot for her next venture. Military Order (111) took the Listed Derby Trial and the full brother to 2021 Epsom Derby winner Adayar is now a short priced favourite for the big race. Reported as a big but balanced horse, it will be interesting to see how he handles the preliminaries on the day.
Other notable performances on the week include Amanda Perrett’s Rebel Territory (114) easily taking the Victoria Cup over 7f at Ascot on ground I estimated to be 33 lengths per mile slow. He is improving fast since the drop down in distance. Connections have stated that a bit of cut in the ground is preferable for the son of Territories. Valiant King (112) romped to a 5 1/2 length win in a Maiden at Navan and it would appear Group races are on the mind of trainer Joseph O’Brien. Mark Walford’s It Just Takes Time (112) was a comfortable 4 length winner of a Class 3 Handicap at Thirsk off a mark of (84) and he has now managed to get five wins from the gelding since taking over from Nigel Tinkler.
My favourite one of the week goes to the Ray Cody trained Esculenta (112) who took a Fillies Handicap by a narrow margin at Gowran Park on Wednesday. On just her second start for the trainer, who acquired her from Johnny Murtagh, she would now appear to have Listed events in her sights going forward. The drop back in trip to the mile seems to have brought out an even higher level of performance from her. Let’s hope she can keep the dream alive!
Best of luck till next week.
Graham